Home WORLD What does the death report of Abubakar Shekau mean for Nigeria’s security?Boko Haram News

What does the death report of Abubakar Shekau mean for Nigeria’s security?Boko Haram News

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Lagos, Nigeria – On May 19, Abubakar Shekau, the long-term leader of the Boko Haram armed group in Nigeria Report death – once again.

Although the details are still vague, local media reports cited intelligence sources as saying that Shekau detonated his suicide vest when hostile fighters from the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) tried to capture him in a hideout in the Sambisa Forest in northeastern Nigeria.

According to reports, Shekau was killed or seriously injured in recent years, including in official statements issued by the Nigerian military-only a few weeks later appeared in online videos to mock such statements. This time, the Nigerian army has stated that it is investigating the report, but has not yet issued a clear statement.

Nonetheless, these reports have caused different reactions and raised questions about the country’s security risks.

“The death of Shekau means ISIS [ISWAP] Confidence MacHarry, a geopolitical security analyst at SMB Intelligence in Lats, told Aljazeera that this will play a leading role on the other end of the conflict, which of course means that the Nigerian military faces more problems.

For more than a decade, in the deteriorating conflict, the Nigerian army has been working hard to contain Boko Haram’s violent attacks in northeastern Nigeria. The conflict has also spread to neighboring Cameroon, Chad and Niger. It is estimated that more than 30,000 people were killed and about 3 million people were forced to leave their homes.

Nigerian President Mohamed Buhari was elected in 2015 for the first time, and promised to deal with insecurity in the Northeast within two years in 2015. During his first year in office, the army, with the assistance of regional forces, pushed back combatants and evacuated them to important towns, and Buhari famously announced that Boko Haram had been “technically” defeated.

However, armed groups and their branches continue to conduct phased attacks, while military operations have been disrupted by many factors, including corruption, insufficient equipment, and shortages of funds and labor.

Recently, the army has lost a chain of towns in the Northeast and Lake Chad region, and has severely criticized its failure to defeat combatants.

Some analysts said that if Xie Kao were indeed killed and the ISWAP fighters were held accountable, it would further reduce Nigerians’ confidence in the country’s military to defeat the fighters and end the conflict.

“The first meaning [of Shekau’s killing at the hands of ISWAP] Freedom Onuoha, a counter-terrorism expert and senior lecturer at the University of Nigeria, told Al Jazeera: “For national security, this is a greater explanation of Nigeria’s national capabilities.”

He said: “This also shows that the people’s lack of confidence in the ability of the national security forces to control criminals will further decline.”

“From the perspective of national security, this is a major loss.”

Who is Abubakar Shekau?

In the 2000s, Shekau was the deputy of Muhammed Yusuf, the founder of Boko Haram. In a fierce speech, Yusuf criticized the government’s corrupt behavior, which he believed was the reason for the incomplete implementation of Islamic laws in northeastern Nigeria-Boko Haram translated as “Prohibition of Western Education “.

During the conflict between followers of the religious group and security forces in 2009, Yusuf was arrested and detained by the police. Then, Shekau took over the re-rope of the Ragtag Prayer Group and led his followers to launch an attack on the northeastern region.

From the beginning, Shekau was notorious for his cruelty.

He sent children and women on suicide missions, often targeting crowded markets and mosques. His combatants looted mercilessly, kidnapped and killed civilians. In 2014, Boko Haram kidnapped 276 female students in the northeastern town of Chibok. This move shocked the world and caused widespread condemnation. More than 100 female students are still missing.

In 2015, Shekau barely supported ISIL (ISIS), and the organization changed its name to ISWAP. But the following year, some of his followers were upset with Xie Kao’s troops, and his leadership style made him dissatisfied.

They were led by Abu Musab al-Barnawi, the son of Yusuf, the founder of Boko Haram. They were recognized by ISIL and retained the ISWAP name. Still in charge of a faction that renamed the original name of the armed group Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’ awati wal-Jihad or JAS.

According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), the main target of ISWAP is the Nigerian military, which has grown in influence and power in recent years, with an estimated 3,500 to 5,000 fighters overshadowing the 1,500 to 2,000 of the Shekau-led faction.

The two groups were caught in a protracted dispute due to various ideological differences. According to reports, hundreds of their members were killed in the previous rounds of fighting.

“it [ISWAP] By obtaining better treatment than its parent organization and filling the gaps in governance and service provision, military achievements and progress have been made in Muslim civilians. ” Say In the 2019 report

It added: “By filling in the gaps in governance and service provision, it provides a certain level of support to local civilians that Boko Haram has never received, and to the neglected areas of Lake Chad and islands. The community has become a source of financial support,” the organization “digs wells, rustles livestock, and provides a small amount of medical care” in communities under its control, where “their taxes are generally accepted by civilians.”

If Xie Kao is killed this time, some experts said they hope that some of his fighters will join forces with ISWAP to form a powerful force against the Nigerian army.

Confidence said: “We will see that the new ISWAP leaders inherit Shekau’s terrorist network in the northeast, which will re-absorb them.” He added: “ISWAP will inherit Shekau’s fighters to a certain extent, because among them Many of them rely on financial aid and central leadership to survive.”

However, international security expert Dickson Osajie (Dickson Osajie) disagrees.

Osajie said: “This will not be a 100% defection.” “The combatants who swore allegiance to Xie Kao will hope to regroup and retaliate for Xie Kao’s death, thereby triggering more crises.”

Regardless of whether Xie Kao is still alive, the battle with armed groups is not over yet, Onoha said, it is time for the army to change its strategy.

He said: “As a matter of urgency, the military needs to reconfigure the entire intelligence collection and sharing structure.” “They need to cooperate with other agencies to study strategic communication to deal with issues such as the financing system of terrorist organizations such as ISWAP.”

In the past, security analysts who monitored insecurity in the Northeast often criticized the military’s defense methods. For the former soldier Osajie, the army must act quickly to take advantage of the situation surrounding the fate of Shekau.

He said: “In security management, you will not give the enemy any opportunity to plan.” “Unfortunately, one of the problems facing Nigeria is that they give the enemy time to plan. On the contrary, the military should treat the Sambisa Forest The remnants of Boko Haram in China launched an offensive because their morale is currently declining,” he told Al Jazeera.



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